By 2030, tokenized assets, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will no longer be experimental concepts, but will be industry staples. According to a new report by IBM, these technologies are poised to dominate retail payment systems, disrupt wholesale payment rails, and revolutionize capital markets.
The report shares insights from a global survey and perspectives of 500 financial services executives. It outlines three scenarios for how tokenization will reshape banking through 2030, detailing each of these scenarios’ distinct advantages and drawbacks.
CBDCs take over retail payment systems
The first scenario involves CBDCs taking over retail payment systems. In this vision, governments and central banks gain greater oversight of monetary flows, enabling faster fund distribution to citizens and reducing bureaucratic friction, while committing to preserve privacy rights. Everyday users benefit from lower transaction fees.
For traditional banks, this scenario poses a relevant threat. If CBDCs sideline card networks and conventional accounts, banks could forfeit billions in interchange fees and deposit-based interest income, as well as the strategic advantage that comes with controlling transaction data.
To remain relevant, banks would need to redefine their value proposition, shifting toward advisory services, holistic digital wealth management, or custody of tokenized assets.
One-third of the executives polled by IBM believe CBDCs are very likely to replace traditional card networks.
Stablecoins replace payment rails
Privately-issued stablecoins backed by assets like fiat or treasuries offer reliability, potential yields, and programmability. These features make them a compelling choice for enterprises, especially when operating cross-border.
Widespread adoption of privately-issued stablecoins would enable borderless, instant payments, optimized liquidity through built-in yield features, and innovative business models that streamline global finance. However, it would also introduce risks to traditional banks.
Programmable payments and smart contracts could spike liquidity demands, forcing enterprises to hold more idle capital to avoid balance sheet strain. Furthermore, if major corporations issue their own stablecoins, a scenario 42% of executives see as likely, banks could see transaction fees evaporate, deposit bases shrink, and customer data slip away.
To counter this, banks can adopt tokenized deposits and tokenize their operations to realize substantial cost efficiencies and boost profit margins. They can also evolve into full-service providers for tokenized operations, from digital custody to liquidity optimization, and offer bridge platforms to foster interoperability across a fragmented stablecoin ecosystem.
Tokenized securities overtake traditional market infrastructure
In this scenario, exchanges, clearing houses and custodians fade into the background as blockchain platforms handle issuance, trading and settlement directly. The benefits here include near-real-time transactions, automated compliance, and fractional ownership that broadens investor access.
For established intermediaries, this would bring a mix of threats and opportunities. Margins might tighten as trading and reconciliation costs plummet, cannibalizing existing revenue. Executives rank these concerns as the top two major threats they face. However, new niches could emerge, such as enhanced liquidity services, compliance tools, and integrated risk management.
Similarly, investors and issuers would gain efficiency and agility, but also face fresh vulnerabilities. Wallets and smart contracts could become primary targets of cyberattacks, and regulators would grapple with overseeing decentralized networks to ensure transparency, prevent market abuse, and uphold standards in a programmable financial ecosystem.
18% of the financial executives polled by IBM believe it is very likely that tokenized securities will overtake traditional capital markets infrastructure.
The state of tokenization
While the future of the tokenized economy remains uncertain and is still unfolding, industry stakeholders agree that the technology is here to stay and are aggressively moving toward adoption. 26% of industry executives say tokenization is now core to their strategic direction.
However, only 9% report being live or ready to deploy initiatives in 2026, reflecting persistant implementation gaps.
Talent is a key factor holding them back, with 71% of executives stating that they face talent deficiencies, with 14% saying these gaps are profoundly limiting.
Despite the challenges, IBM expects 2026 to be a turning point for tokenization, propelled by accelerating development fueled by advancing regulation, including the US GENIUS Act, maturing blockchain technologies, and the transition of pilots to live deployments. Notable examples include parts of Singapore’s Project Guardian ecosystem, China’s e-CNY, and Cambodia’s blockchain-based retail system Bakong.
Market projections
Estimates by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and ADDX suggest that tokenized assets could reach US$16 trillion by 2030, which would represent nearly 10% of global GDP. McKinsey offers more modest baselines, projecting between US$2 trillion and US$4 trillion in total tokenized market capitalization, excluding cryptocurrencies, by decade’s end.
Looking ahead to 2030, banks are expected to play different roles in the tokenized economy. Financial executives polled by IBM anticipate their institutions will participate across multiple roles, with service providers (64%), custodian services (61%), and issuer roles (56%) cited most frequently. Interestingly, only 32% see their organization actively providing wallet solutions, despite wallets being a primary client touchpoint in a tokenized economy.
Featured image: Edited by Fintech News Switzerland, based on image by ahmedemad11 via Magnific
